You're Kidding

Really, you've got to be kidding. Seriously. The crackerjack reporting team over at Live Science gifted the AP wire with an article today that has to be a joke. It has to be.

Because really?

You're telling me that people don't understand rainy weather forecasts?

If it's not a joke, it's going on the list of ways to piss me off.


Seriously, the guy with the bad hairstyle and the out of fashion tie stands in front of a green screen and looks sideways. He waves his hands like a magician over the green screen and tells us what the weather is going to do for the next couple days. Sure, it's a best guess, and that's pretty tricky, but that isn't where the problem comes in, apparently.

No, it's that people don't understand what it means when there is "a 20% chance of rain from now until September." Sure, that's a Houston specific forecast, because we're subtropical here and get a lot of rain. All at once.

But really, when the skinny guy in the bad tie refuses to make eye contact with the camera because he's so busy reading his computer monitor off screen and trying to get his hand motions to match up to the right location as he scans the teleprompter too. Wait, I lost track of what I was saying...

Okay, yeah. When the weathercaster says there is a 20% chance of rain for the day, there seems to be confusion among the masses. Does it mean it's going to rain over 20% of the viewing area? Does it mean it's going to rain for 20% of the time? Does it mean I should take 20% of an umbrella or a rain jacket?

No. No it doesn't.

And you're idiots if you think it does.

No really, you're idiots. It had to be said. I'm sorry if it seemed harsh, but it's true.

And the guys at Live Science spent a good 3 pages of my computer screen to tell me just how to interpret the weather forecast, in case I'm one of those idiots, too.


I'm not. And none of you better be, either.

If there's a 20% chance of rain, and you live in an area where you get those wicked fun daily afternoon storms, you should take your umbrella or wear fast drying natural fibers when you're running around at 3 o'clock. If you live in an area that never gets rain, chances are good you won't, but you might.

Because on other days, when the weather conditions have been just the same, you've gotten rain 20% of the time. And when the forecast says there's an 80% chance of rain. Yeah, it's actually rained 80% of the time on days with matching conditions. So that means that on a nice April day, after a cool front has come through the city and dumped 9 inches of rain in 24 hours, and then the weather dried up and cleared up, warming into the mid-80's for a day, that on day 3, when there is a 50% chance of rain....

It means you're probably going to get wet, but what you do behind your bedroom door is up to you.

And as for the rain, well, there's a 50/50 chance it will rain, but it might not.

So do what every sane person does.

Put an umbrella in the car and then forget it's there, so you can stare out into the parking lot wishing you had it with you when it does rain.


Seriously.